Yes I know I’m a bit late to the Oscar train but Oscar season is about to come to its dramatic close and Oscar’s old, 90 years old this year in fact but evolving maybe…. with a batch of nominees that feel a bit more diverse and representative of film going audiences (in my view) and while things aren’t perfect maybe we’re getting there.
Anyway with the Oscars coming up tomorrow, I haven’t really done any coverage on the awards thus far but I wanted to give my opinion regardless because there are a few shoe-ins in terms of predicted winners but I’m hoping for some surprises. I’ve also only made predictions for films that I’ve seen and have knowledge to predict on, because I do this every year and predicting winners for films I haven’t seem does seem a bit disingenuous in my view and I always want to give my authentic, real thoughts and views on things, so here goes:
Call Me By YouR Name
The Darkest Hour – winner
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Very hard category this year with 3 or 4 strong contenders for the win – 3 Billboards has the biggest buzz around it for sure but Phantom Thread is the quintessential best picture film in my opinion, plus it has Daniel Day Lewis but hold on, I’m going with The Darkest Hour, a loved film all around with Gary Oldmans performance stealing headlines and it’s the film I want to win. But thinking logically, it’s flatly between The Shape of Water, Phantom Thread and Three Billboards.
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – winner
Meryl Streep, The Post
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Another year of strong nominees for best actress, the evergreen Meryl Streep would be a shoe- in any other year but some memorable performances from Hawkins and McDormand may just steal the night, I think Frances McDormand wins this one though, the momentum is with Three Billboards and people seem to love her specifically in the film, so yeah.
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour – winner
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Very strong list of nominees here, with a notable nomination for Daniel Kaluuya which is pretty incredible, it would be fitting and a perfect send off for Daniel Day-Lewis to get the Oscar but he has enough, right? I think Gary Oldman wins this one, with his dedication to the role and brilliant method acting, he’s also never won an Oscar somehow despite some great performances so it’s about time.
Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird – winner
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Maybe one of the more contentious categories with a surprise in store, I don’t see a nailed on winner here but I do think that Laurie Metcalf may just win it, I don’t think Lady Bird will win much on the night apart from this, people may be expecting Allison Janney to knick it for I, Tonya but this may be a surprise win.
Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – winner
Interesting category this year with 3 Billboards having two nominees but even without this, I think Sam Rockwell wins on the night, he’s a fantastic actor and is great in the film and it’s surprising he hasn’t won more awards in the past.
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water – winner
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Strong category here with some directors who would win in any other year but I may go with the general consensus and say Del Toro wins it, because he’s a great director dedicated to his craft and I think the academy and people generally love The Shape of Water, Paul Thomas Anderson is an academy darling though, despite Phantom Thread not really having that much buzz around it, it could somehow sneak the win.
Best Original Screenplay:
The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor; story by Guillermo del Toro)
Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)
The Bick Sick (Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) – winner
Get Out (Jordan Peele)
I think I’d like Get Out to win this one, for being such an intuitive and craft idea for a film that worked but Del Toros imagination and attention to world building may just win this category, he’s a great story teller and that’s what may make him rise above the others here, strong competition in general though and especially from 3 Billboards.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Call Me By Your Name (James Ivory) – winner
Logan (Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green; story by James Mangold)
Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin)
Mudbound (Virgil Williams and Dee Rees)
The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber)
I’d love nothing more than for Logan to win this and I think it’d be a deserved winner but let’s face it, the academy just doesn’t fancy superhero/comic book films, though Logan is unlike any in the past 18 years or so, I think Call Me By Your Name takes this one, a well liked film with not too many noms but I think it’s the favoured one here.
The Boss Baby, Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
The Breadwinner, Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
Coco, Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson – winner
Ferdinand, Carlos Saldanha
Loving Vincent, Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman
How The Boss Baby is nominated for this I will never know but surely Coco has to win this, a loved film, Pixar… that’s about enough really.
Blade Runner 2049, Roger Deakins – winner
Darkest Hour, Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk, Hoyte van Hoytema
Mudbound, Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water, Dan Laustsen
Deakins, Deakins, Deakins, he’s just got to win this hasn’t he? Somehow he’s never won an Oscar for his work but he far and above deserves to win won just retroactively, let alone for the visual feast that Bladerunner 2049 was, come on Academy! That being said, Dunkirk also had some pretty spectacular cinematography.
Baby Driver, Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss – winner
Dunkirk, Lee Smith
I, Tonya, Tatiana S. Riegel
The Shape of Water, Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Jon Gregory
Baby Driver all the way for this one, maybe a bit of an obvious choice but the skill and effort that went into editing that film is something else, a very snappy, stylish film in ever sense of the words and yeah, it’s a shoe-in, Dunkirk a strong competitor though.
Baby Driver, Julian Slater – winner
Blade Runner 2049, Mark Mangini, Theo Green
Dunkirk, Alex Gibson, Richard King
The Shape of Water, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood
Interesting category here with some interesting choices like The Last Jedi…. anyway this may not be as predictable as people think (Baby Driver) and I think Bladerunner 2049 could surprise people with a win… but who do I want to win? Baby Driver for sure, Dunkirk may also be a favoured choice for some.
Beauty and the Beast, Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
Blade Runner 2049, Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola – winner
Darkest Hour, Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
Dunkirk, Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau
Category with some strong nominees here for varying reasons, Beauty and the Beast may be a strong favourite for many but it’s going toe to toe with Bladerunner and Shape Of Water for me, it’s a very close to call category overall but I think Bladerunner wins this one.
Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread, Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat – winner
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, John Williams
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Carter Burwell
Very hotly contested category here with some great nominees, Hans Zimmer is a legend in the industry of course and by all means should win but I think The Shape of Water may just be a favourite here, with Dunkirk not quite having the momentum or buzz it has, maybe just due to one film being more recent than another. SOW wins.
Beauty and the Beast, Jacqueline Durran – winner
Darkest Hour, Jacqueline Durran
Phantom Thread, Mark Bridges
The Shape of Water, Luis Sequeira
Victoria and Abdul, Consolata Boyle
Category with some strong choices but I think it has to go to the obvious one this time around, not Phantom Thread, Beauty and The Beast of course! It’s a film steeped in its mis-en-scene and fanciful, extravagant production design so I think it’s a shoe-in, plus everyone loves Disney (though not everyone loves the live action film trend)
Best Visual Effects:
Blade Runner 2049, John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer – winner
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
Kong: Skull Island, Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan
War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist
Fun category, I really like all of the these films…. apart from Bladerunner, but yeah it’s an odd one to call because I think that film may just win the category outright, the Academy tends to shun comic book films and Star Wars has barely made a dent at awards in recent decades so it seems pretty obvious, I can’t see it going to Kong either but War For The Apes is the other best choice imo, if it’s not going to Bladerunner.
All in all I hope it’s a good, interesting night with some surprises.